Author Archives: owlbirol

Recently, a top Russian diplomat stated that Turkey cannot be a part of the Shanghai Economic Cooperation and NATO at the same time. This statement refueled the well-known debate regarding whether or not Turkey should conclude its 70-years-old partnership with NATO. Whether or not Turkey can establish its own national security without NATO has noContinue reading “A Nuclear Arsenal alla Turca, without NATO?“

In July 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan attacked each other in the shadow of their Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. The military casualties reached 7,630 on the Azerbaijani side[1], and 2,317 on the Armenian side[2] – which makes this recent conflict a war according to academic standards.[3] Reports also suggest that about 70,000 civilians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region wereContinue reading “The Stability of the November 10 Ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh”

Many experts have thus far labeled President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foreign policy direction as Neo-Ottomanism. They did so by observing the Erdogan administration’s pursuit of influence in the former Ottoman regions in the Middle East and North Africa (i.e. MENA) through soft power[1], coercive diplomacy and brute force. Nevertheless, Turkey’s partnership with Qatar casts doubtContinue reading “Understanding Turkish Foreign Policy: The Role of Qatar”

As D.J. Trump’s presidency approaches its end, a good mental exercise is to evaluate his foreign policy agenda. In this piece, I will concentrate on laying out the consequences of Trump’s foreign policy choices. In doing so, I will base my arguments on logically-driven and empirically corroborated foreign policy theories. I will do my bestContinue reading “Rethinking About Trump’s Foreign Policy Agenda, 2016-2020”

Tensions remain high between Turkey and Greece due to their conflicting Eastern Mediterranean Sea border claims. It is uncertain how the two rivals will settle on a resolution. Turkey pursues its “Blue Homeland” doctrine which declares ownership over 124,202 square miles of naval territoryin the Black, Marmara, Aegean, and Eastern Mediterranean Seas. [1]. Greece onContinue reading “Turkey is likely to make strong concessions in the Eastern Mediterranean Crisis”

How long will the Azerbaijan-Armenia military clashes last? There are already 600 military casualties that both sides suffered. Azerbaijan is quite optimistic that it can easily seize Nagorno-Karabakh. The Aliyev administration recently acquired an undisclosed number of Turkish military drones[1], which reinforces its optimism for a big victory. Armenia is also optimistic that it canContinue reading “The Expected Duration of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict”

When it comes to curbing Iran’s ambitions in the Middle East, the American policy experts are polarized between two positions. The first is the reinstatement of the Iran Deal (i.e. the JCPOA). This position is popular among the Democrats. The second is continuing Trump’s unilateral maximum pressure strategies, which is rather (if not completely) popularContinue reading “How Should the Next US President Approach Iran?”

How should the next US president deal with North Korea’s missile tests? Recently, we witnessed two largely different approaches from Presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama. Obama showed early signs of willingness to conduct direct diplomacy with North Korea. However, he shifted to the Strategic Patience approach in 2013 after the hermit nation launched aContinue reading “Assessing North Korea’s Missile Tests”